Evidence with its limits attached.
Different evidence layers are never treated as interchangeable. National records, ownership context, recent reports and local context answer different questions. None predicts whether an individual bike will be stolen.
TheftScore
TheftScore is a 1–99 relative position for a motorcycle model family. It compares the latest three complete years of national recorded-theft entries with average licensed-stock exposure over the same period. Small and unstable samples are statistically moderated so that a handful of entries cannot dominate the ranking.
A score of 78 means the model's adjusted recorded-theft representation is higher than roughly 78% of evidence-qualified families in that edition. It does not mean a 78% probability that an individual motorcycle will be stolen.
Every result carries an edition, evidence grade and likely score range. A score is withheld when the model identity overlaps another family, stock exposure is incomplete, the sample is too small or uncertainty remains too wide.
National model record
The leading model view is an annual national record series organised into recognisable motorcycle families. Model-family views may not add up to the complete national total. A motorcycle may appear more than once where it was recorded stolen on multiple occasions.
Ownership context
Licensed motorcycle stock is shown where enough supporting context is available. This provides population context, not an individual probability or an insurance-style risk price.
Recent signals
Dated reports add recency and broad place detail that an annual national series cannot provide. Reporting awareness and coverage change over time, so this layer is labelled separately and is never presented as total crime.
Recent pulse
The recent pulse asks whether a model appears more or less often than supported motorcycles in the community index after allowing for current licensed stock. Its coverage and period differ from the national score, so it remains a separate supporting signal and never changes the TheftScore.
Areas and local context
Area pages use broad locations. Local searches use approximate area centres and aggregated vehicle-crime context, which can include cars, attempted theft and interference. Local figures are therefore not added to motorcycle-model totals.
Licensing Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. TheftScore is independently produced and is not endorsed by any public body.
Questions and corrections
If a result appears wrong, email contact@theftscore.co.uk with the page URL and the specific figure or label.